--- title: ARIMA with Drift (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Drift) description: ARIMA with drift is a time-series forecasting method that estimates future values based on past patterns while also accounting for a steady average change over time. --- [Skip to content](https://help.northdata.com/en/center/arima-with-drift-autoregressive-integrated-moving-average-with-drift#main-content) - [English](https://help.northdata.com/en/center/arima-with-drift-autoregressive-integrated-moving-average-with-drift) - [Deutsch](https://help.northdata.com/de/center/arima-mit-drift-autoregressive-integrated-moving-average-mit-drift) English Show submenu for translations [![northdata-logo.png\]](https://help.northdata.com/hs-fs/hubfs/northdata-logo.png?width=250&height=86&name=northdata-logo.png)](https://www.northdata.com/) Open main navigation Close main navigation - - [English](https://help.northdata.com/en/center/arima-with-drift-autoregressive-integrated-moving-average-with-drift) - [Deutsch](https://help.northdata.com/de/center/arima-mit-drift-autoregressive-integrated-moving-average-mit-drift) English Show submenu for translations - [Back to the main page](https://www.northdata.com/) [Back to the main page](https://www.northdata.com/) Hello! How can we help? - There are no suggestions because the search field is empty. 1. [North Data Help Center](https://help.northdata.com/en/center?hsLang=en) 2. [Glossary](https://help.northdata.com/en/center/glossary?hsLang=en) 3. [Market Intelligence](https://help.northdata.com/en/center/glossary?hsLang=en#market-intelligence) # ARIMA with Drift (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Drift) **ARIMA with drift** is a time-series forecasting method that estimates future values based on past patterns while also accounting for a steady average change over time. The model combines three key elements: - past values of the series, - changes between periods (e.g. year-over-year differences), - and typical short-term fluctuations observed in the data. In addition, it includes a drift term, which represents a long-term tendency such as gradual growth or decline. In simple terms: → *the next value is estimated as the current value plus an average change and short-term variations.* ARIMA with drift is particularly useful for data that evolves gradually over time, such as the number of active companies, new registrations, or closures. 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